Two little-known Victorian postcodes have joined world-famous Byron Bay and Randwick among Australia’s best prospects for future property price gains, according to a new report.
Hotspotting’s latest Price Predictor Index names young Geelong suburb Armstrong Creek and seaside South Gippsland town Venus Bay among the nation’s 50 “super-charged” markets tipped to be on the brink of “boom time growth levels”.
Report author Terry Ryder said residential sales had increased over several consecutive quarters in these postcodes — a proven precursor to price rises.
“It’s an indicator people can use to buy in places where there’s a likelihood of prices rises,” he said.
Quarterly transactions doubled from 35 to 71 in Armstrong Creek and tripled from 13 to 45 in Venus Bay over the past year and a half.
Mr Ryder said the latter’s median house price had already jumped 6 per cent in 2020, but still had plenty of growth left in it, sitting at an affordable $345,000.
The same applied to Armstrong Creek ($575,000), which the leading real estate researcher said had been popular with the market’s “most active cohort”, first-home buyers, and boosted by the federal government’s HomeBuilder grant.
He added COVID-19 had amplified a pre-existing “exodus to affordable lifestyle” trend to propel these postcodes, and others like them, on to buyers’ wishlists.
Armstrong Real Estate agent Josh McDonald agreed the pandemic had “been good for (the Armstrong Creek) market”, with “a lot of Melbourne buyers realising they can work remotely and have a coastal lifestyle here”.
“Inquiries have been through the roof straight away this year,” Mr McDonald said.
He said the developing suburb was already well established, but had “five to 10 years of proper growth to come”, with more housing, shops and schools on the way.
“Soon, there’ll be no reason to go into Geelong (city) at all,” he said.
Paul and Aimee Wheate said they had secured a bigger house on a smaller mortgage and adopted “a much healthier lifestyle” in Villawood’s Mt Duneed estate, which had several parks and a clubhouse with two pools and a gym.
“We’re also about an hour from the Melbourne CBD, you’ve got world-class beaches and an airport nearby,” Mr Wheate said.
“Ten years from now, everybody will wish they’d bought in Geelong.”
Mr Ryder said the Geelong and Surf Coast region was home to eight more “rising” property markets (Bell Post Hill, Clifton Springs, Geelong, Lara, Leopold, Newtown, Ocean Grove and Torquay) while Ballarat had six (Alfredton, Canadian, Delacombe, Lake Wendouree, Miners Rest and Mount Clear), making the regional hot spots ideal buying targets.
The Mornington Peninsula was his pick in greater Melbourne, with four rising suburbs: Blairgowrie, Rosebud, Rye and Somerville.
“It offers a lovely bayside lifestyle that is affordable compared to inner Melbourne, (and has) improved transport links and big jobs nodes, particularly at Western Port,” he said.
His report also crowned Parkdale “Australia’s most consistent market” for maintaining steady sales volumes throughout 2020. This had translated to an 8 per cent median house price rise “in a time where Melbourne overall has not produced growth”.
But Mr Ryder warned budding buyers to avoid “danger” markets the CBD, Docklands, North Melbourne and Southbank, where rental vacancy rates had soared while sales activity and prices had fallen during the pandemic.
Victoria’s property stars and hazards
GREEN: The best bets for future growth
‘Super-charged’ markets: Armstrong Creek, Venus Bay
Regions with most rising markets: Geelong and Surf Coast (Bell Post Hill, Clifton Springs, Geelong, Lara, Leopold, Newtown, Ocean Grove, Torquay)
Ballarat (Alfredton, Canadian, Delacombe, Lake Wendouree, Miners Rest, Mount Clear),
Mornington Peninsula (Blairgowrie, Rosebud, Rye, Somerville)
Whittlesea (Epping, Mernda, South Morang)
Banyule (Heidelberg, Montmorency, Watsonia)
ORANGE: The most consistent markets
Parkdale, Bairnsdale, Chelsea, Chirnside Park, Kilsyth, Macleod, Mount Evelyn, Paynesville, Thomastown, Wendouree, Yarrawonga
RED: Danger markets
Melbourne CBD, Docklands, North Melbourne, Southbank
Source: Hotspotting’s Price Predictor Index, Summer 2021-21 edition