Black Homebuyers Face Bigger Price Increases and a Deeper Housing Shortage

Black homebuyers, who are less likely than their white counterparts to have jobs that can be done remotely, face higher home prices as white homebuyers move to more affordable suburbs

Home prices in neighborhoods where Black people bought homes in 2019 were up 7% in July. That’s higher than the 6% price increase in neighborhoods where white people purchased homes last year. The pace of price growth remained unchanged from pre-pandemic rates in February in both groups of neighborhoods. 

For this analysis we analyzed data on home sales during the pandemic looking separately at Census tracts where Black people bought homes in 2019 and neighborhoods where white people bought homes in 2019, according to the Home Mortgage Disclosure Act (HMDA) data. Neighborhoods where Black people bought homes and neighborhoods where white people bought homes are not mutually exclusive. 

In the months since the pandemic spread across the U.S. (May to July) home sales fell 15% from last year in neighborhoods where Black people bought homes. Meanwhile, home sales fell 13% in neighborhoods where white people bought homes. Before the pandemic in February, sales were up in both types of neighborhoods, but were growing twice as fast in neighborhoods where white people bought (8%) as in neighborhoods where Black people bought (4%).

The higher price growth and deeper sales decline in neighborhoods where Black people bought homes has likely been due to bigger declines in homes being listed for sale, with new listings down 19% year over year in July, compared to a 12% drop in neighborhoods where white people bought homes. Both types of neighborhoods were experiencing declines in new listings in February, before the pandemic began, down 9% year over year in neighborhoods where Black people bought homes and down 6% year over year where white people bought. 

During the pandemic many homebuyers have been looking to live in more affordable suburban and rural areas because of the new normalization of remote work. But only 20% of Black workers can do their jobs remotely compared to 30% of white workers. This means that Black homebuyers are less likely to relocate away from the neighborhoods where they bought homes before the pandemic began. And because those neighborhoods have seen steeper increases in prices and larger declines in new listings, Black homebuyers are at a bigger disadvantage than white homebuyers during the pandemic. 

In 2019, Black people were already tending to buy more affordable homes. The median price of homes bought by Black people was $283,000, compared to a median price of $383,000 for homes bought by white people. One reason home prices may be up more in neighborhoods where Black people bought homes may be the increase in demand for affordable homes.

This could lead to more gentrification in neighborhoods where Black people bought homes. Black people have struggled more than white people to make mortgage and rent payments during the pandemic. Investors may see that as an opportunity to buy up affordable homes and apartments and renovate them to appeal to wealthier buyers and renters, further reducing the number of affordable homes available to Black people. 

This pandemic-driven recession is already disproportionately hurting Black American employment with the Black-white jobless gap widening. After the 2008 recession, the Black-white homeownership gap widened by 5%. And after the pandemic ends, we may see the Black-white homeownership gap worsen even more than it did following the 2008 recession. 

Investors crowding out first-time homebuyers in Newark

Newark saw the biggest annual home prices (14%) in neighborhoods where Black people bought homes. Meanwhile, in neighborhoods where white people bought homes in Newark, price growth was up 6% year over year. Home prices were already rising quickly in neighborhoods where Black people bought in Newark even before the pandemic began—back in February 2020 home prices were up 12% year over year in neighborhoods where Black people bought, and up only 5% year over year in neighborhoods where white people bought.

“The vast majority of homebuyers in Newark are investors,” said local Redfin agent Marci Macedo.

Only 23% of homes are owner-occupied in Newark compared to 64% nationwide. The number of new listings in July declined 13% in neighborhoods where Black people bought, but increased 1% where white people bought in Newark from last year. Homebuyers in Newark have to compete for the few available homes for sale with investors looking for safe long-term investments during the pandemic driven recession.

“These investors typically buy multi-family homes and fix them up to rent out long-term,” Macedo continued. “About 90% of my listings are purchased by investors. It’s very hard for first-time homebuyers because investors can out-bid them and make all-cash offers. And once an investor buys an owner-occupied home and converts it to a rental, you won’t see that home come up again for sale for a very long time.”

Home sales down 32% in San Francisco neighborhoods where black people bought homes

Home sales were down the most in July in neighborhoods where Black people bought homes in San Francisco, where home sales were down 32% from a year ago. By comparison, home sales were down 8% year over year in neighborhoods where white people bought homes in San Francisco. In July, price growth was up more in neighborhoods where Black homebuyers bought (up 2% year over year) compared to neighborhoods where white people bought (up 1% year over year). San Francisco is the second least affordable metro in the country for Black residents. Only 34 Black people bought homes in San Francisco in 2019, compared to 1,992 white homebuyers according to mortgage origination data. 

The lack of home sales in San Francisco is not due to a lack of listings, but due to a lack of demand as San Franciscans leave the city. New listings were up 14% year over year in neighborhoods where Black people bought homes. Meanwhile, new listings were up 11% year over year in San Francisco neighborhoods where white people bought homes. Before the pandemic, new listings were falling—down 8% in neighborhoods where Black people bought and down 2% in neighborhoods where white people bought.

As highly paid tech workers leave San Francisco during the pandemic, we could see a reversal of gentrification there. San Francisco rents are falling, and home prices may soon follow, making San Francisco a more affordable place to live for both Black and white residents.

Home Sales by Neighborhoods Where White and Black People Bought Homes

Metro Race Mortgages Originated in 2019 Median Home Value Purchased in 2019 Median Sale Price YoY Growth (July 2020) Home Sales YoY Growth (May-July 2020) New Listings YoY Growth (July 2020) Median Sale Price YoY Growth (Feb 2020) Home Sales YoY Growth (Feb 2020) New Listings YoY Growth (Feb 2020)
National Black 140,593 $283,040 7% -15% -19% 7% 4% -9%
National White 897,670 $382,635 6% -13% -12% 6% 8% -6%
Anaheim, CA Black 145 $691,923 3% -24% -11% 9% 15% -6%
Anaheim, CA White 8,629 $885,771 4% -19% -9% 5% 19% -5%
Atlanta, GA Black 21,115 $241,525 6% -17% -27% 6% 3% -14%
Atlanta, GA White 38,943 $333,681 4% -15% -18% 5% 6% -12%
Austin, TX Black 1,217 $295,374 7% -19% -22% 5% -2% -22%
Austin, TX White 18,179 $399,441 8% -13% -15% 8% 7% -11%
Baltimore, MD Black 5,927 $293,468 6% -4% -12% 6% 8% -3%
Baltimore, MD White 17,869 $364,779 5% -7% -11% 6% 13% 2%
Boston, MA Black 1,228 $400,119 7% -23% -23% 9% 3% -8%
Boston, MA White 11,124 $567,628 6% -21% -11% 6% 6% -10%
Charlotte, NC Black 5,292 $255,248 7% -18% -34% 9% 5% -15%
Charlotte, NC White 25,758 $327,670 6% -16% -29% 8% 8% -17%
Chicago, IL Black 6,219 $214,608 8% -11% -16% 8% 4% 2%
Chicago, IL White 37,622 $333,000 5% -14% -5% 4% 10% 5%
Cincinnati, OH Black 1,607 $182,781 13% -15% -12% 12% 6% -7%
Cincinnati, OH White 21,917 $231,149 8% -12% -9% 8% 6% -8%
Cleveland, OH Black 1,738 $138,651 8% -3% -11% 11% 10% -9%
Cleveland, OH White 17,261 $214,537 7% -7% -10% 7% 5% -7%
Columbus, OH Black 2,176 $212,080 10% -12% -14% 8% 7% 1%
Columbus, OH White 19,458 $267,520 7% -8% -15% 7% 7% 0%
Dallas, TX Black 5,837 $289,650 3% -11% -20% 3% 1% -13%
Dallas, TX White 29,538 $377,140 3% -8% -13% 3% 8% -11%
Denver, CO Black 1,467 $376,834 5% -7% -4% 4% 17% -5%
Denver, CO White 31,627 $483,610 4% -6% -5% 4% 12% -1%
Detroit, MI Black 1,709 $156,071 9% -19% -12% 10% 2% -1%
Detroit, MI White 9,044 $211,057 7% -18% -8% 5% 1% -8%
Fort Lauderdale, FL Black 4,114 $294,667 9% -28% -22% 7% 3% -14%
Fort Lauderdale, FL White 6,695 $401,816 8% -25% -12% 7% 8% -12%
Fort Worth, TX Black 2,895 $264,774 3% -15% -18% 2% -5% -14%
Fort Worth, TX White 16,446 $305,830 4% -10% -17% 3% 1% -9%
Houston, TX Black 8,412 $256,832 3% -15% -23% 2% -3% -13%
Houston, TX White 33,458 $333,355 4% -10% -14% 3% 6% -8%
Indianapolis, IN Black 2,268 $201,018 9% -8% -12% 9% 4% -3%
Indianapolis, IN White 22,565 $241,649 9% -9% -12% 7% 6% 0%
Jacksonville, FL Black 2,915 $227,822 7% -18% -22% 3% 2% -10%
Jacksonville, FL White 14,309 $292,651 5% -14% -16% 5% 2% -9%
Kansas City, MO Black 1,476 $209,231 9% -6% -29% 6% 6% -4%
Kansas City, MO White 21,512 $262,326 7% -7% -28% 7% 8% -6%
Las Vegas, NV Black 2,363 $305,444 7% -23% -21% 5% 25% -11%
Las Vegas, NV White 13,630 $355,200 7% -19% -14% 5% 23% -9%
Los Angeles, CA Black 1,712 $601,276 7% -21% -17% 7% 8% -10%
Los Angeles, CA White 14,330 $951,542 6% -19% -6% 7% 10% -5%
Miami, FL Black 1,176 $315,661 9% -25% -21% 9% 10% -11%
Miami, FL White 2,323 $532,171 8% -24% -6% 3% 12% -12%
Milwaukee, WI Black 782 $167,616 12% -12% -11% 10% -2% -7%
Milwaukee, WI White 12,575 $286,261 7% -12% -9% 8% 8% -6%
Minneapolis, MN Black 2,515 $272,824 6% -10% -14% 4% 7% -4%
Minneapolis, MN White 38,028 $318,285 5% -9% -14% 5% 8% -1%
Montgomery County, PA Black 890 $303,159 7% -26% -11% 8% 10% -5%
Montgomery County, PA White 14,174 $366,157 5% -27% -7% 7% 7% -6%
Nashville, TN Black 2,040 $294,257 7% -20% -26% 7% 0% -19%
Nashville, TN White 23,456 $360,715 6% -18% -21% 6% 1% -20%
Nassau County, NY Black 1,589 $429,008 6% -29% -14% 9% 4% -2%
Nassau County, NY White 11,405 $545,769 5% -25% -7% 5% 6% -7%
New Brunswick, NJ Black 1,006 $342,572 8% -22% -6% 8% 5% -4%
New Brunswick, NJ White 15,923 $407,788 8% -14% -3% 8% 8% -3%
New York, NY Black 2,015 $454,669 7% -19% -11% 9% 0% -11%
New York, NY White 13,000 $578,801 4% -20% 3% 6% 2% -4%
Newark, NJ Black 1,716 $338,253 14% -20% -13% 12% -3% -15%
Newark, NJ White 9,197 $476,713 6% -15% 1% 5% 10% -6%
Oakland, CA Black 801 $626,506 5% -23% -16% 5% 5% -6%
Oakland, CA White 6,319 $899,369 3% -17% -5% 5% 8% -8%
Orlando, FL Black 3,717 $268,542 6% -22% -19% 6% 6% -4%
Orlando, FL White 16,830 $318,125 6% -22% -15% 6% 8% -9%
Philadelphia, PA Black 2,646 $181,946 9% -22% -14% 13% 6% 1%
Philadelphia, PA White 7,494 $333,475 7% -27% 0% 7% 9% -1%
Phoenix, AZ Black 2,823 $291,569 10% -7% -8% 10% 18% -4%
Phoenix, AZ White 48,589 $349,921 10% -10% -5% 9% 17% -6%
Pittsburgh, PA Black 633 $172,095 10% -17% -1% 6% 4% -3%
Pittsburgh, PA White 15,367 $237,720 7% -18% 1% 10% 5% -5%
Portland, OR Black 501 $401,168 5% -15% -21% 6% 7% -13%
Portland, OR White 20,500 $434,519 5% -13% -18% 6% 6% -11%
Providence, RI Black 1,006 $296,632 7% -17% -11% 10% 3% -3%
Providence, RI White 12,294 $336,448 7% -17% -15% 9% 7% -4%
Riverside, CA Black 2,372 $384,844 6% -14% -21% 5% 6% -2%
Riverside, CA White 15,516 $421,839 7% -9% -13% 5% 13% -1%
Sacramento, CA Black 1,134 $384,678 8% -14% -16% 7% 0% 1%
Sacramento, CA White 12,158 $473,724 6% -6% -13% 5% 5% 3%
San Antonio, TX Black 1,865 $270,094 3% -21% -25% 3% -2% -25%
San Antonio, TX White 11,969 $295,358 5% -13% -19% 4% 4% -14%
San Diego, CA Black 730 $523,957 5% -10% -8% 6% 10% 1%
San Diego, CA White 12,509 $725,398 5% -9% -7% 6% 12% 0%
San Francisco, CA Black 34 $1,473,235 1% -32% 14% 0% 0% -8%
San Francisco, CA White 1,992 $1,630,984 2% -18% 11% 4% 1% -2%
San Jose, CA Black 81 $919,074 4% -6% -2% -1% -6% -20%
San Jose, CA White 2,460 $1,260,187 3% -8% -5% 1% 5% -10%
Seattle, WA Black 1,077 $477,063 7% -18% -17% 7% -7% -9%
Seattle, WA White 18,353 $623,803 7% -17% -16% 7% -4% -11%
St. Louis, MO Black 2,576 $175,678 8% -5% -28% 7% 13% -1%
St. Louis, MO White 26,553 $242,574 7% -6% -21% 6% 5% -3%
Tampa, FL Black 3,339 $242,903 7% -22% -23% 6% -9% -21%
Tampa, FL White 26,281 $293,049 9% -14% -14% 7% 7% -11%
Virginia Beach, VA Black 4,234 $236,849 7% 1% -8% 8% 4% -6%
Virginia Beach, VA White 13,038 $290,508 6% 2% -9% 7% 11% -6%
Warren, MI Black 1,834 $209,520 8% -19% -16% 7% 4% -8%
Warren, MI White 23,685 $263,070 6% -18% -10% 7% 4% -8%
Washington, DC Black 11,425 $382,938 7% -11% -15% 8% 7% -4%
Washington, DC White 25,649 $529,929 7% -10% -7% 7% 5% 3%
West Palm Beach, FL Black 2,204 $273,813 10% -23% -11% 8% 14% -7%
West Palm Beach, FL White 10,119 $386,804 9% -22% -3% 5% 15% -7%

Note: “Mortgages Originated in 2019” and “Median Home Value Purchased in 2019” are based on homes bought by Black/white people in 2019. All other data are based on all homes sold in the neighborhoods where Black/white people bought in 2019.

Source link